Procurement Leaders’ Guide to Better Forecasting in 2027
Supply risks and price pressures won’t wait for your next reforecast. When ingredients, packaging and freight move at once, a single-commodity view won’t protect your supply chain costs. Download the guide and build 2027 forecasts that hold up.
What’s in the guide:
- Top 9 reasons why your procurement forecasts break down.
- 8 ways to build smarter forecasts for 2027.
- How to spot where your procurement forecasts will break first.
- How to calculate – and justify – your forecast errors.
- How leading brands forecast amid volatility.
Download the guide now
The cost of good vs. bad forecasts
The stakes are significant wherever you sit in the food value chain
F&B manufacturers
2–3%
revenue increase linked to a 10–20% improvement in consumer packaged goods forecast accuracy.
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
Retail & grocery
$1.7T
in annual global retailer losses from stockouts and overstocks, equal to 6.2% of global retail sales.
Source: IHL Group, 2026 Inventory Distortion Study
Foodservice
9 in 10
operators now cite food costs among their most significant challenges, with food costs up 34% on pre-pandemic levels.
Source: National Restaurant Association, 2026 State of the Restaurant Industry
Know why, where and when your forecasts went wrong
Every procurement forecast eventually gets a hard question from finance or the board:
“Costs came in higher than budgeted… why?”
How that question gets answered often decides whether it’s seen as a market problem or a procurement one. The guide covers four things that close that gap:
Set up procurement–finance joint ownership before a variance happens
Keep a dated record of every forecast revision
Track your own forecast accuracy over time
Use tools specifically built to track forecast changes over time
Forecast revision trail
- Actual market price
- Original forecast
- Revised forecast
Illustrative example, not actual market data
About Expana
Expana is the world’s largest IOSCO-assured agrifood commodity price database with 40,000+ prices and 25,000+ forecasts across 1,300+ commodities covering ingredients, packaging, logistics and energy.
Brands like McDonald’s, Sainsbury’s, Woolworths, Hilton, PepsiCo, Compass Group – and more – rely on Expana’s commodity data to navigate market volatility and forecast with confidence.
To learn more, visit expanamarkets.com
Brands by Expana:
Mintec Analytics, Urner Barry, Feed Info, Stratégie Grains, Tropical Research Services
